When parasite prevention gets personal

Photo: Kristina/Adobe Stock

For over 13 years, a unique collaboration between parasitologists and statisticians has been quietly revolutionizing how parasite activity is tracked and reported. The result? A forecasting system with pinpoint accuracy that can change the focus of client conversations from problem to solution.

The Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC), widely recognized as the authority on forecasting multiple parasites affecting pets, has been refining its 30-Day Pet Parasite Forecasts to provide veterinary teams with a powerful tool—an “easy button” for the parasite prevention conversation—at a time when appointment efficiency has never been more important.

Riverview Animal Hospital in Birmingham, Alabama, used the forecasts in a client communications campaign. “We’ve always been huge fans of CAPC,” Amy Tate, DVM, co-owner of Riverview Animal Hospital, said. “It’s an incredibly useful tool for helping educate clients about parasite risks.”

The science behind the forecasts

CAPC’s forecasting expertise represents years of scientific collaboration and data collection. The organization has assembled a cross-functional team bridging veterinary parasitology and statistics to develop sophisticated prediction models.

“These Pet Parasite Forecasts are put out monthly for the same 4 diseases that we do the annual forecast for—Lyme disease, anaplasmosis, ehrlichiosis, and heartworm disease,” Stella Self, PhD, a statistician at Clemson University in South Carolina, who helped develop the automated analysis behind the forecasts, explained. “They’ve been produced since 2018 and are essentially forecasts of each county’s monthly seroprevalence.”

The accuracy of CAPC’s forecasts has been validated through rigorous statistical analysis. Using a weighted correlation metric (where closer to 1 indicates better performance), the forecasts consistently achieve correlations of 0.9 or higher when compared with actual laboratory results.

The foundation of these forecasts is data—and lots of them. Every month, CAPC’s algorithms analyze more than 300 million laboratory test results from across the country, identifying patterns that would be impossible to detect through traditional methods.

“[These data go] all the way back to 2012,” Self noted. “We use a Bayesian binomial regression model that has a conditional autoregressive spatial random effect structure. That’s a mouthful, but it basically means this model has the ability to borrow information across space and time, which is very powerful.”

This sophisticated approach allows CAPC to predict heartworm and tick-borne disease with remarkable accuracy at the county level, giving practices hyperlocal insights about parasite risks in their specific communities.

“CAPC’s forecasts are a prime example of big data at work in veterinary medicine,” Chris Carpenter, DVM, MBA, CEO of CAPC, said.

From data to action: Case studies in success

For Innovetive Petcare (IPC), a network of 83 practices throughout the eastern United States, CAPC’s forecasts proved instrumental in driving preventive care during a recent test-and-learn project. The IPC team identified pet owners who hadn’t scheduled heartworm tests or other preventive care appointments in over a year. Using CAPC’s county-specific data, they launched a targeted campaign with personalized emails and social media posts highlighting local parasite threats.

“CAPC helped us deploy emails based on high threat levels in local zip codes,” Malia Rivera, IPC vice president of marketing, said. “That level of detail made a difference—clients came in saying, ‘I just got this email about heartworm cases here, and I want to make sure my pet is protected.’”

According to IPC, the results showed testing adherence was 20% better with localized data than with generic messaging. Additionally, preventive product purchases increased by 12.5%, and the average purchase amount per email recipient was 7% higher for clients who received the localized parasite information.

Riverview Animal Hospital had a similar experience when implementing CAPC’s forecasts in its client communications. “We lead every wellness visit with parasite prevention,” Tate explained. “We’re one of the top 3 states for overrepresentation of heartworm disease, especially with the resistant variants that have come out in recent years.”

By incorporating CAPC’s forecast data into its client education, Riverview found that pet owners arrived at appointments already understanding local risks and ready to discuss solutions rather than requiring extensive education during limited appointment time.

Countering declining visits

These success stories come at a critical time for veterinary practices. Industry data show veterinary visits declining, with wellness visits specifically lagging. For practices facing these challenges, CAPC’s forecasts offer a compelling way to drive necessary preventive care visits.

The forecasts create urgency around time-sensitive parasite risks, motivating clients to schedule appointments they might otherwise postpone. This approach is particularly effective because it’s based on scientific data rather than general seasonal recommendations.

“I want more veterinary partners to learn about the benefits of CAPC and the information they provide,” Rivera said. “It is extraordinarily valuable in helping us educate our clients.”

Protecting the whole family

Perhaps the most compelling aspect of CAPC’s forecasts is their relevance to human health. Many parasites that affect pets also pose significant health risks to human family members, including children who may have closer contact with pets and outdoor environments. Beyond identifying immediate threats to pets, these forecasts serve a sentinel function—an early warning system for rising parasite risks in the broader community, helping veterinarians and public health officials track trends before they become widespread.

By framing parasite prevention as protection for the entire household, veterinarians can elevate their discussions with clients beyond routine pet care. This One Health perspective resonates strongly with health-conscious pet owners who increasingly view their veterinarian as an important partner in protecting family well-being.

“When clients understand that the same parasites threatening their pets could also affect their children, they’re significantly more motivated to follow through with recommended testing and prevention,” Carpenter noted.

The future of forecasting

As vector-borne diseases continue expanding into new territories, CAPC’s forecasting capabilities have become increasingly relevant to veterinary medicine. The organization continues to refine its models and expand its offerings. For example, a new program from CAPC allows practices to receive customized monthly forecast reports designed specifically for integration into client communications. According to Carpenter, this program represents the next evolution in parasite prevention.

“While our nationwide annual forecasts help us track progression of diseases, our monthly forecasts help pet owners understand immediate threats in their neighborhoods,” Carpenter said. “This new program will make it even easier for practices to leverage our data in a way that drives client action.”

The key is consistency and localization. Generic parasite email messages don’t drive the same results as county-specific alerts that create immediate relevance for pet owners. “That level of detail made a difference,” Rivera emphasized. “Clients came in specifically because of those targeted communications.”

For both IPC and Riverview Animal Hospital, the benefits extended beyond metrics to more efficient appointments. When clients arrived already educated about local parasite risks, veterinary teams could focus on treatment and prevention options rather than lengthy explanations about parasites and their associated diseases.

Get your practice involved

Currently, CAPC is partnering with larger hospital groups to share local forecast data with their clients. The goal is to expand this program through technology partnerships to every veterinary hospital that is interested.

“Our county-level forecasts for parasite infections drive clinic visits, testing, and preventive prescriptions better than any other type of client communication,” Carpenter said. “We look forward to making this big data tool available to every veterinary hospital in the coming year. We know that this is the best way the profession can fulfill CAPC’s vision of ‘Every pet tested and protected.’”